Predke secures victory over Lithuania: standings and final-round scenarios

Predke’s win earned the Open team two more match points, while the women shared the points with Italy. In round ten of the Samarkand Olympiad on 26 September, Serbia beat Lithuania 2½:1½ in the Open and drew 2:2 with Italy in the Women’s section.

The Open team is now 13th on 15 match points, and the women 27th on 13. Tomorrow’s final-round opponents are confirmed: Serbia - Azerbaijan and Serbia - Austria. Below are all board results, standings extracts and the scenarios for the final day.

Open: Predke wins, the other three draw

Alexandr Predke beat Pijus Stremavičius with Black, while Alexey Sarana, Aleksandar Inđić and Bojan Maksimović drew. Velimir Ivić rested. Following the win over Switzerland, Serbia has now won two consecutive matches without losing a game.

Lithuania started the round two places above Serbia, on the same 13 match points. The narrow victory lifted Serbia from 20th to 13th. Its record is seven wins, one draw and two losses, with 24½/40 board points.

Results in board order, White first:

• Board 1: Titas Stremavičius - Alexey Sarana ½:½. View game on Lichess
• Board 2: Aleksandar Inđić - Tomas Laurušas ½:½. View game on Lichess
• Board 3: Pijus Stremavičius - Alexandr Predke 0:1. View game on Lichess
• Board 4: Bojan Maksimović - Gleb Pidluznij ½:½. View game on Lichess

Official results, Open match 10

Open standings after ten rounds

The top 15 teams. MP means match points; SB is the current value of the first tie-break. Serbia is highlighted.

Full Open standings

Women: Elif and Sofia secure a 2:2 draw

Elif Mehmed beat Olga Zimina and Sofia Pogorelskikh defeated Giulia Sala, both with White. Alina Bivol lost with Black to Marina Brunello, and Jovana Srdanović to Tea Gueci. Teodora Injac rested.

This was Sofia’s fourth consecutive win, following victories against Cuba, Belarus and France. Elif returned to winning ways after her loss in the previous round. However, two defeats with Black left Serbia with a drawn match.

The women have five wins, three draws and two losses, with 25/40 board points. They dropped from 23rd to 27th, within a large group on 13 match points.

Results in board order, White first:

• Board 1: Marina Brunello - Alina Bivol 1:0. View game on Lichess
• Board 2: Elif Mehmed - Olga Zimina 1:0. View game on Lichess
• Board 3: Tea Gueci - Jovana Srdanović 1:0. View game on Lichess
• Board 4: Sofia Pogorelskikh - Giulia Sala 1:0. View game on Lichess

Official results, Women match 14

Women’s standings: leaders and Serbia’s neighbours

An extract after ten rounds, showing the top five, the teams immediately around Serbia, and Austria, the final-round opponent. Omitted places are marked with “…”.

Full Women’s standings

Final round: Azerbaijan and Austria

Round eleven starts tomorrow, 27 September, at 08:00 in Serbia (CEST), or 11:00 in Samarkand. Team pairings are published, but the four-player line-ups have not yet been confirmed at the time this report was prepared. Official schedule

The Open team faces Azerbaijan, seventh on the same 15 match points, in match 5. The women meet Austria, 34th on the same 13 points, in match 14. Final-round Open pairings · Final-round Women’s pairings

What would a win, draw or loss mean?

These are Serbia’s possible final match-point totals. Comments about finishing positions are our assessment, apart from the specifically explained bound for an Open-team win.

Why would an Open-team win guarantee a top-nine finish? On 17 match points, Serbia could have at most eight other teams on the same or a higher total. This follows from the published pairings, particularly Netherlands - Germany, USA - Turkiye and Armenia - Croatia: each match can produce at most one team with at least 17 points. Uzbekistan, India, Ukraine, Hungary and Uzbekistan 2 can also join that group. This is a mathematical bound based on match points, not a prediction of an exact finishing position.

Our hope for the Open team is a win and a single-digit finish. How high within the top nine Serbia could climb depends on other results and the tie-breaks. Uzbekistan - Ukraine, India - Hungary and China - Uzbekistan 2 are also worth following.

For the women, beating Austria is the key to recovering ground and finishing positively. Returning to the top twenty would be a welcome ending, but 15 match points alone would not guarantee it. Medals are out of reach: five teams already have at least 16 points. Around Serbia’s group, relevant matches include Iran - Azerbaijan, Netherlands - Czech Republic, Switzerland - Peru, Estonia - Hungary and Philippines - England.

Why today’s SB does not settle the final order

Tied teams are first separated by board points scored against each opponent multiplied by that opponent’s final match points, with one opponent excluded under the regulations. Next come total board points, then opponents’ match points with the lowest excluded. Earlier opponents’ final results therefore change SB too; neither a bigger win nor today’s SB advantage guarantees an exact place. FIDE regulations, Appendix 2

Open the games directly on Lichess using the links beside the results. The previous round is covered in our round-nine report.